BAIDOA, Somalia | November 5, 2026-Somali Federal Government forces have blocked several major roads across Baidoa, the administrative capital of Southwest State, placing large stones and other barriers at strategic locations amid growing fears of a possible security confrontation with armed forces loyal to former Southwest State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Laftagareen.

The heightened security measures follow reports of significant overnight movements by heavily armed Darawish forces loyal to Laftagareen in several areas surrounding Baidoa. The developments have raised concerns about renewed fighting between federal troops and regional forces as the political and security situation in Southwest State remains increasingly unstable.

According to local reports, federal security forces have strengthened their positions along major roads and key junctions, apparently seeking to restrict movement and prevent potential advances by rival armed groups.

The latest developments come amid an escalating struggle for political and military control of Southwest State, where competing claims to leadership have deepened divisions between the Somali Federal Government and supporters of Laftagareen.

A Deepening Political and Legitimacy Crisis

The current instability in Baidoa is closely connected to the unresolved legitimacy crisis surrounding Southwest State’s political leadership.

Tensions between the Federal Government and Laftagareen intensified earlier this year following disagreements over constitutional reforms, regional autonomy, electoral arrangements and the federal administration’s involvement in Southwest State’s internal political affairs.

The confrontation reached a turning point on March 30, 2026, when federal forces took control of Baidoa following a breakdown in relations between Mogadishu and Laftagareen’s administration.

Laftagareen subsequently announced his resignation, but the political dispute continued as forces and political figures loyal to him challenged the legitimacy of the new administration.

In June, Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe assumed office following a regional parliamentary election. However, the process faced objections over electoral transparency and political participation, further complicating efforts to establish a broadly accepted regional government.

While the Federal Government recognizes the administration based in Baidoa, Laftagareen’s supporters continue to challenge its legitimacy, arguing that the political transition did not adequately reflect the will of Southwest State’s population.

The competing political claims have contributed to a prolonged standoff, transforming what began as a dispute over governance into a wider confrontation involving rival security forces and territorial control.

Previous Armed Confrontations

Baidoa has witnessed several violent incidents connected to Southwest State’s political disputes in recent years.

In December 2022, clashes erupted between regional security forces and opposition supporters amid disagreements over the extension of Laftagareen’s presidential mandate. The violence resulted in several deaths and intensified political tensions across the region.

Subsequent reconciliation efforts produced agreements intended to reduce tensions and establish a political roadmap, but disagreements over elections and regional leadership remained unresolved.

The security situation deteriorated significantly during 2026 as the struggle between federal forces and Laftagareen-aligned fighters developed into repeated armed confrontations.

On August 17, heavy fighting in Baidoa reportedly killed at least four civilians and wounded dozens of others, highlighting the growing dangers faced by residents.

Further clashes occurred in September when fighters loyal to Laftagareen reportedly established checkpoints in several neighborhoods before withdrawing toward positions outside the city.

Another confrontation later that month demonstrated that neither side had achieved a lasting security settlement.

The repeated incidents have increased fears that Baidoa could experience another major escalation if political negotiations fail.

Strategic Pressure on Baidoa

The wider military situation in Southwest State has also contributed to growing uncertainty over Baidoa’s security.

In October, forces aligned with Laftagareen reportedly expanded their positions in parts of the region, including the strategically important town of Buurhakaba, located along the main route connecting Baidoa with Mogadishu.

Control of surrounding towns and major transport corridors has become increasingly important in the confrontation, particularly because Baidoa serves as the principal administrative and military center of the federally supported regional government.

The reported movements of Darawish forces around Baidoa have therefore raised concerns that the city could face additional military pressure.

However, there has been no independently confirmed evidence that the latest movements represent the beginning of an immediate offensive.

The road closures may reflect precautionary measures by federal commanders seeking to secure strategic positions amid uncertainty over the intentions of rival forces.

Growing Concerns Among Civilians

The deteriorating security environment has created additional concerns for Baidoa residents, who have already experienced repeated periods of political tension, armed clashes and restrictions on movement.

Major road closures could disrupt commercial activities, public transportation and access to essential services, particularly if security restrictions continue or expand.

Baidoa is also an important humanitarian center serving displaced communities and vulnerable populations across the Bay region.

The continuing militarization of the political dispute has reinforced concerns that civilians may again bear the consequences of a confrontation between competing authorities.

For now, the reported roadblocks and overnight troop movements have placed Baidoa under renewed scrutiny, with concerns growing that another confrontation could emerge.

As political divisions deepen and rival forces maintain positions around the city, Baidoa faces an uncertain future, with the possibility of renewed violence threatening an already fragile security environment.